After experiencing a downturn after the end of 2021 pandemic, the production of electronic devices has finally shown an upward trend. According to IDC data, smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2021 showed a negative growth of -6% compared to the same period last year. The decline in the fourth quarter of 2022 hit a low of -18%. Since then, smartphones have been recovering. IDC data has not been released yet, but Canalys expects smartphone shipments to decrease by only 1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023. The shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2022 should follow a typical pattern of growth in the third quarter, which will lead to a median single digit year-on-year growth. IDC predicted in August that smartphone shipments for the entire year of 2023 will decrease by 4.7%.

Personal computers are also on the rise. IDC estimates that global PC shipments in the third quarter of 2023 decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the low point of 29% year-on-year decline in the first quarter of 2023. Similarly, based on typical trends in the fourth and third quarters, PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023 should increase by a medium to high single digit compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. IDC's PC forecast for August is a 14% decline for the entire year of 2023. IDC's forecast may be adjusted upwards based on data from the third quarter of 2023.

As the largest producer of electronic equipment, China is the key to understanding trends. According to data from August 2023, China's average three-month electronic product production in local currency (RMB) increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the highest increase in eight months. Limited smartphone production data shows that the average sales volume for the three months in August 2023 decreased slightly by 0.6% compared to the same period last year, and significantly improved by 11.6% compared to March 2023.

The production of personal computers in China remains weak, with an average production decline of 17% in August 2023 compared to the same period last year. August is the twelfth consecutive month of double-digit decline. However, several major PC manufacturers are transferring some of their PC production out of China. Among the world's four major PC suppliers, Lenovo, ranked first, is located in China, while the second to fourth ranked (HP, Dell, and Apple) are located in the United States.

According to a report by Nikkei Asia in July 2023, HP plans to transfer most of its laptop production from China for export to Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam. By 2023, production outside of China may increase by 5 million units, nearly 10% of HP's total personal computers. In January 2033, PCMag reported that Dell may transfer 50% of PC production from China by 2025. In January, Forbes announced that Apple plans to shift most of its production of MacBook PCs from China to Vietnam. These measures are mainly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the intensification of Sino US trade tensions. Although these production transfers continue, China's personal computer production data can still become a reliable indicator of global personal computer trends.

The production of electronic products in local currencies in major Asian countries is mainly on the rise. As mentioned earlier, the average electronic product production in China for the three months of August increased by 2.6% year-on-year. Taiwan, China's output grew 9% in August, the strongest growth in eight months. In September, Vietnam's production increased by 0.6%, better than the seven consecutive months of year-on-year decline. South Korea announced a 6% decline in August, but there has been an improvement from the double-digit decline in the previous three months. Japan's production growth in August was healthy at 6.8%, but it has slowed down from the double-digit growth in the first three months.

The overall growth trend of electronic product production in the United States and Europe is slowing down. The average production of the United States in August increased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year. This is the ninth consecutive month of slowing growth since reaching a peak of 8.1% in November 2022. The 27 European Union countries (EU 27) reported a 2.2% increase in production in July, continuing a 7-month single digit growth trend. Double digit growth will be achieved from May to November 2022. After growing within the range of 7% to 17% in the first 13 months, UK production growth slowed to 1.1% in August. Compared to Asia, there are differences in the types of electronic equipment manufactured in the United States and Europe, which to some extent leads to differences in production trends. Asian countries mainly produce smartphones, personal computers, televisions, and other consumer electronics devices. The production in the United States and Europe focuses more on electronic devices sold to enterprises, such as enterprise computing, data centers, communication infrastructure, and industrial electronic products.

Based on the above trends, the electronic and semiconductor markets are expected to achieve stable growth in 2024.

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