If you plan to change your phone this year, the following news may make you tighten your wallet.

Due to the unprecedented supply vacuum of global memory chips, the Chinese mobile phone market is about to usher in the "strongest" price hike in history. According to the latest insight from research firm IDC, this chain reaction triggered by computing power demand is putting the entire electronics industry's supply chain at risk of collapse.

The core driving force behind this crisis is artificial intelligence (AI). In order to support the huge demand for AI computing, the production capacity of high-end storage chips worldwide is almost monopolized by giants.

Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director at IDC, bluntly pointed out that the destructive power of this wave of stock shortages far exceeds previous fluctuations in the pandemic or tariff adjustments. Due to severe overcapacity, the supply-demand imbalance is expected to span the entire year of 2026, and may not even see signs of relief until mid-2027.

For consumers, the most immediate impact will officially explode in March. With the successive introduction of new spring products by major brands, there may be a rare phenomenon of "multiple price adjustments in a year" in the market:

Shocking increase: The price adjustment range for new machines expected to be launched after March will significantly expand. Preliminary predictions indicate that the initial price increase for the new product will not be less than 1000 RMB.

Flagship pressure: For mid to high end and flagship models, the increase may even reach 2000 to 3000 yuan due to the impact of storage cost premium.

Capacity premium: By 2026, the price difference for high-capacity versions will become extremely outrageous. Compared to models with the same configuration in 2025, the premium space may be locked in between 300 and 1000 yuan.

IDC's warning reveals a cruel truth: the golden age of low-priced smartphones has come to an end.

Data shows that there were still 170 million units of entry-level smartphones priced below $100 last year, but against the backdrop of skyrocketing chip costs, this market is almost unprofitable. Even if the shortage problem is solved in the future, it is extremely difficult for the price of storage chips to fall back to the level of 2025.

The mobile phone market is undergoing a profound profit structure reshuffle. The continuous increase in consumer purchase barriers will not only test the business model of brand merchants, but may also lead to a shrinkage of the overall market size.

Before 2027, "cost-effectiveness" may become the most luxurious term in the mobile phone industry.

*Disclaimer: The above content is reproduced on the semiconductor core news WeChat official account, which does not represent the views and positions of the company, but only for exchange and learning. If you have any questions or objections, please contact us.